tv U.S. Farm Report NBC November 1, 2015 3:00am-4:00am CST
allow two children for every couple. the communist party issued a statement, saying to promoate a balanced growth of population, china will continue to uphold the basic national policy of population control. this still needs to be approved by china's top legilsature. china began to relax the policy last year, allowing couples to have a second baby if the mother or father was an only child. dupont pioneer is no longer denying that its agriculture business could be a part of a merger. during the earnings call this week, dupont interim c-e-o said everyone is talking to everyone right now and he's talking to ceo's of other companies. he went on to say consoidation should happen and they're looking to see of anything makes financial sense for shareholders. dupont reported q-3 earnings down 17 percent compared to last year, with a 30 percent drop just in its ag business. that's it for the news. mike, a cool down this week for areas with some viewers even seeing their first snow. thanks, tyne. that's actually going to be in our western parts of the country. if you live in
couple of days this week. in the meantime, look at this, there's just no red left in texas, southern mississippi valley there's still some drought conditions considered or long term drought, but it's amazing how fast those red areas went away. haven't done that out west yet . hopefully as we get into tan el nino weather, especially californian nevada we can help you out a at least a little bit. let's go day by day. as we start the week, wet storm system in eh southeastern part of country. so mid atlantic down into florida. areas of rain and thunderstorms scattered showers up in the northern portions of the plains. back to the west, there's some of that snow tyne mentioned in eh western sections a pretty strong storm starts to come in during the day on monday. it will be rain in the lower elevations. most of california. but upper elevations going to see some snow and look at the warmth spreading through the midwest, especially the central and western corn belt. that warmth remains south of this frontal system through the
dominating there. scattered showers and storms in florida southern plains four corner region. some of this could be on the heavy side again. and then we'll see rain with snow on the western fringes by friday that whole system moving eastward ,cold front from the great lakes down into texas with areas of showers and thunderstorms `along the cold front. maybe a little snow in the northwestern great lakes. and another system coming into the pacific northwest, with some valley rains and mountain snows out that way. we'll be back in the next half hour with a longer range forecast. thanks, mike. when we come back from break, alan brugler and bryan doherty are here to talk about what china's new child policy could mean for u-s ag goods.
from one children per family. how bullish is that for agricultural exports? alan? >> i think it's positive in the long term, but obviously it takes a few years to get that going, and there's some skepticism as to whether some of these single children will want to have two children of their own, but statistically what alarmed me was one of the drivers of the policies, there's actually 33 million men with no woman because under the onchild policy there was a bias towards having male children as heirs, so there's a big mismatch socially, and it's very understandable why you'd want to change that policy. obviously they're also getting older. yeah, it's a long term positive for demand because it implies so much population growth, but in the short run very little impact on the market. >> what are we seeing right now? with the economic turmoil that we've seen in china, brian, so much uncertainty, big impact on dairy and other products. what's the situation today? >> sure, well,
a big bear down trend now for nearly two years. a lot of that impact is, of course, the outlook for china's economic environment and the worrisome environment that exists there. yet, when we step back and look at it there's still strong in their use. gdp is 6.9, somewhere in there. ours is what, 2 here in the u.s.? there's still growth, and just a little reflection on that childbirth policy. i think that goes back into a little bit of a demographic outlook when you look at china. they're an aging society and aging community. they need to sustain their culture. they need to have, every woman needs to have 2.1 children. they're not there, so they recognize that. they're going to have a labor shortage in decades to come if they don't change their outlook, and that's what they're doing. >> alan, talking about exports overall. we were seeing some weak exports late summer, just not very positive when we were looking at the new crop. but have those picked up? are you more bullish now when it comes to some of
that demand from our customers? >> i'm more bullish on soybeans. we're still behind a year ago by 6.7 million tons, but we are starting to gain. it was 7.8 million tons a month or two ago. what that says is the rate of sales has picked up. we're booking over 2 million tons a week right now for beans. i think we'll be above a million and a half tons a week throughout the rest of the calendar year, through the end of 2015. corn is still dragging pretty badly here. we're getting competition out of ukraine, the cheap stuff coming straight out of the field and getting sold. but the eu does not have as much corn, and that will help us in the long run. >> looking at supply, you know, we continue to hear just these amazing soybean yields coming out of the field, and much larger than what many farmers expected, so what's your expectation? i mean, are we going to see usda increase yield in the next report? >> oh, i think so, or there's a good chance of it at least. that's just a reflection -- beans are hard to guess until you get into the field with combines especially in drier weather
years when we went through a dry stretch, and then the midwest got those really beneficial rains in august that really seemed to put on the yields. so my guess is that we might raise that yield yet a half bushel to a bushel an acre. the question is, is it factored into the market already? >> what do you think? >> well, we're seeing the export activity pick up. and on that note if i'm a buyer, which china or somebody else is, and they see the potential for a big supply coming, there's not the need or rationale to buy ahead. they'll still buy, it's just they're buying changes form to more of a just in time inventory buyer. >> so a bushel, bushel and a half possible increase in the soybean yield. do you think that's realistic? >> i don't think it will be quite that large of an adjustment, and the reason is that the crop condition ratings have consistently been below a year ago all year. now, we do have an upslope in the yield trend year over year, but because of that lag in the ratings for the national numbers, and the problems we had in some areas, i have a hard time seeing that yield being much above last year's final yield, which was
47.5. >> okay. corn, you say you're more bullish on the corn side, brian. >> i'm a glass half full person in the long run, sure. and there's a lot of reason behind that, but let me boil it down to two numbers. demand exceeds production this year. we average 168 bushels an acre, so in order to stop or reverse that trend the declining carry out from year to year, something has to give. either demand has to diminish, we have to increase yield or we have to increase acres. well, how do you increase acres? you have to drive the market upward to give farmers an incentive. right now they're on pins and needles on how to cut costs for next year. they're not thinking of planting more corn acres at least that i'm talking to people. they're looking at these surprisingly good bean yield and say, you know, maybe go more beans next year and take a chance that el nino flips into la nina and gets a pop and make money more in beans. so i think corn has some upside potential, especially as
we get more toward the late spring early summer. >> and do you think we need to buy acres in the corn market? >> i don't think we need anymore acres than we did this year, really. we're still carrying a million and a half a half bushels of carryover. obviously, there's not much yield tolerance in there if we do have a low yield, but we've also got global production expanding. the brazilians are going to greatly expand their second crop corn, the safrinha corn, so i think expanding acreage here would be a problem. >> all right. when we come back we have some livestock experts here, so we need to talk we'll talk hogs. we'll talk cattle. maybe get into some dairy. we'll do that when we come back on u.s. farm report. (music) >> this is machinery pete, inviting you to check out my new website, machinerypete.com. offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipment listing to search, let machinery pete help you find and value your next piece of used equipment. [ break
weather has been, and you said that actually means we're going to see less harvest loss, which could show up in the next usda report. >> yeah, there's a harvest loss fraction that's incorporated into usda's calculations, and that's there because of corn goes down, ears that drop, a little freeze damage sometimes. the evidence suggests we're not having that this year, so that's a fairly small technical adjustment in their calculation, but it does suggest a little higher number. i think the bigger variable is going to be the farmer survey part of it. as the producers got into the field the anecdotal reports would say that the yield was better than they expected. well, if it was better than what they told usda in the september survey or the october survey then the number goes up a little bit. >> okay. moving onto cattle. brian, we saw some strength in the cattle market this week, some nice strength. do you think that can last? >> probably not. i still think
because i think we're getting further and further removed from the droughts of 2011 cocalf guys have had some pretty good years, and more importantly you're seeing confidence this year. you saw it last year finally by mid summer that, hey, we are going to have dependable feed and hay. and those are the qualities that eventually lead to expansion, especially when you have cheaper corn prices. so i think not only do you have cattle expanding, but you're looking at total red meat production, or total meat production including poultry, pork and beef this year up about 3.5%. they're eating something. they're eating corn because it's cheap, but we're expanding. throw on top of that some negative things like this last report. it doesn't help, but i think rallies, i think producers should be on their toes. rallies from this point onward really should be treated defensively. i'd be looking at using puts to floor the market and leave the topside open. if you want to be a little bit more aggressive buy a put, sell a call option. >> alan, last time you were on in september you
heavy weights just weighing down these feeder we through those heavier weights now? >> looks like we're getting to the end of that problem. the packers have had to start bidding more aggressively for cattle because we've got the we're actually in fairly low numbers through the end of the year when you look at what we call ready numbers, finished cattle, compared to a year ago. we got kind of surprised by the degree of heavy weights back in october and earl september, but i think we're through that so that will help us a little bit. but we have to remember that excess meat that we had in september and october went in the cooler. the cold storage numbers were very large, and so we've got to work through that. exports are a problem for beef. pork's doing okay. statistic that i came up with this week was that the net change in supply from the increased imports of beef and decreased exports is 4.5%. so we've got 4.5% more meat just
eat, and that takes typically lower prices. retail's not lower yet. the wholesale's trying to go down, but the consumer's not seeing the signal. >> brian, when we look at milk, what can we expect for the first half of 2016? >> first half of 2016's going to be a tough half for milk producers. there again we saw macroeconomics we saw really strong milk prices in the vast majority of 2014, and then you get the hangover effect. and that is you get this increased supply because producers do what? well, they increase production. in part they spend it or lose it, so they reinvest into their herds and the better producers have gotten bigger. that's just a fact, so you're getting better efficiency per cow. you're getting better producers, better managers, and that's our problem right now. we're seeing it across the
more beef. we've got to consume it. the dollar's up this year. that's an issue. >> alan, real quick before we go. hogs, we saw some pressure this week in those pits, but looking forward to the remainder of this year, first quarter of next year, what is your expectation for hog prices? >> basically we think a little more pressure. we're not quite to the main chart support, but, again, the supply is not going to be quite as big in the fourth quarter as we originally thought. squatter's not running quite as high. carcass weights are being reasonable, so chances for correction. >> correction. all right. thank you both. closing thoughts when we come back. for 150 years cargill has been working side by side with farmers in the agricultural community. thank you for being part of this success. we continue to look forward and are excited to offer online grain
weather pattern. a little dry in the north. a little wet in the south. we really don't want a big rally yet because they are still planting. we don't want to incentivize them to plant more than than 100 million tons of production in soybeans. argentinian elections are going to be late. so basically don't expect big downside. don't expect much of a rally until december brian? >> i'll take corn. look for more sideways trading corn. we've been in a sideways market for eight months now. march corn is traded at 3.90 each in the last three months. that being said, long term, start thinking a little bit more positive and position yourself. corn's a sleeping market. it's sideways, it's space billing. as prices rally, sell into those rallies but look for rownership for el nino to flip to la nina. >> good advice. stay with us. john phipps joins us when we come back. >> receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market
view the markets like never before. go to bowertrading.com. as harvest comes to a close, many farmers reflect on a year's worth of work for john this year struck an emotional chord. john. well, we are putting our toys away, harvest is over for us. we finished up yesterday. it brought back something that i wanted to share with you this week. my father, late father, was also a story teller, joke teller. i know...apple tree... i get that a lot. but unlike me, dad never felt the compulsion to add any new material. once he found a good joke he would just stick with it through his entire
example, when i was a boy at the supper table if i made some smart alek remark, my father would look at me sadly and say 'johnny, johnny thousands of comedians are out of work and you are making jokes.' budum bump, and he would do that almost every single time. so as we finished up yesterday and we got to the last row, the last through, i immediately thought of what my father would be saying at this moment, because he did every year, to anybody who happened to be around, even if they were rolling their eyes at the time, as the combine made the last pass, going up the last rows, he would intone solemnly, 'now that's the row we have been looking for.' every. single.
something more than grain, i hope that your harvest was rewarding and i hope that you have a sense of relief if you are finished and if you found that last row. i hope that it triggered for you some wonderful memories as well. very moving. thanks, john. when we come back, it may be hard to talk about growth in a year like 2015, but certain sectors are using the current market environment to their advantage. we'll tell you who and how coming up after the break.
welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. growing pains to major gains... our farm journal report shows us who's in the best position to grow in 2016. el nino makes the winter outlook a little tricky. but mike hoffman shows us what's in store over the next 90 days. and it's outdooors on the farm with chip flory, who's in the mood to hunt. now for the headlines, bacon causes cancer? that's the
this week after a new study study put red and processed meats in a negative light. the international agency for research on cancer, or i-arc has linked processed and red meat to cancer. to put it into perspective, here's a breakdown of the five classifications from the agency, which range from group one, carcinogenic to humans to group 4, probably not carcinogenic. in group 1, the same category as processed meat, i-arc also lists smoking, drinking alcohol and exposure to solar radiation. then, red meat is in the next category, which is the probably carcinogenic to humans. that includes glyphosate, which was just added this year, and being a hairdresser or barber. one thing the study didn't clarify is the level of risk with each item. the beef checkoff's nutrionist says no single food has ever been proven to cause cancer. and her advice hasn't changed: eat a balanced diet. portions of the federal crop insurance program were on the chopping block this week, as house leaders worked on ways to save money in a new
budget deal. but mid-week, officials said they found a way to avoid the three billion dollars in cuts to crop insurance for now. the house of represetatives passed a budget deal on wednesday. the senate followed suit thursdsay. congress elected representative paul ryan as speaker of the house this week. this is the first time a speaker was elected to the job in the middle of a congressional term since 1989. ryan takes over for representative john boehner. north dakota could be seeing its largest sugar beet corp on record. the american crystal sugar company says it's also the cleanest and best quality. weather and lack of mud this fall helped. recent rains are healing lands in the south. the latest u-s drought monitor shows an incredible change in just one week, especially texas, arkansas and louisiana. this is the map that shows the difference, with the green signaling improvement. the entire south region is free of the two most severe levels of drought in three months. looking just at texas, the severe drought category improved 34 points. but louisina is seeing
improving 53 points. and the area considered severe, that's the orange in the northwest corner of that state, that improved 65 points in seven days. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now. mike, just amazing changes in the drought monitor this week thanks to rain in the south. is this just a glimpse into what their witner will be like? thanks, tyne. actually yes it is an el nino winter typically is a little wet through southern tier of states so we'll check that out coming up, in the meantime, this week we're going zonal at firs,first then a huge ridge builds up in the eastern part of country. several days of warmth there. there's that big troph out west producing a fair amount of moisture. that comes eastward as we head toward next weekend. so my november temps. below normal from kansas and also nebraska southward into four corner region. above normal southeast and the northern tier of states. as far as december is concerned, we expand that above normal area a little father south through
plains and four corner. and then on to january more of the same. we'll expand the below normal area into the southeastern part of the country. looks like a pretty cold winter for you folks down south. mainly because more clouds and rain with above normal from norther great lakes to pacific northwest . precipitation, there it is. above normal through southern tier of states. belo normal northern great lakes into the northern portions of the rockies. tyne.
are very cautious. they pull back on their ag equipment purchases, they pull back on what they're paying for land. > goss says we've switched from an economic tailwind to an economic headwind, < because of the federal reserve at least moving in the direction of higher interest rates and of course the global economy is slowing down, so it looks like 2015 farm income is going ot be down from 14 and 14 was down from 13. i expect 16 to be a little bit better turn around there.> goss says for farmers looking to grow and doing so by borrowing money, shopping around for the lowest interest rates does come with a certain level of risk.
looking for ways to diversify and stabilize income. and that provides the opportnutiy to reintroduce cows. > it's more than just diversification that could help agriculture in the years to come. goss says increasing trade relations, including major deals like the trans pacific trade pact, could also help pull agriculture through. your latest issue of top producer maginze includes a similar article, titled "do you have room to grow?" that's hitting mailboxes this week and focuses on the current and long-term bank capacity needs. you can also read it online- - topporducer hyphen online dot com. when we come back-- john phipps.
not everyone agreed with john's commentary about removing pork from prisons. so he's back with round 2. nancy and chuck lahr are upset with my dismissal of the now-cancelled pork ban in federal prisons: "appalled at your comments on the pork ban. what you don't get is this was just a start on pork ban. then it would have extended to all other federal facilities etc. pork producers in my area don't agree with your opinions. we are thankful for grassley to stand up for us." thanks for your facebook feedback. again, the pork ban was rescinded so it doesn't matter as much, but your assertion that this is the beginning of a government wide ban sounds familiar. the idea that every government action is the tip of an iceberg or the first step toward some extreme result generates strong
reactions, but is almost never true. mostly it is a technique to manipulate the public or the marketplace. i could not turn up any evidence of further steps to limit pork consumption by the federal government, but if anyone has credible proof this is occurring i will share it. pork producers fixated on the minscule amount of sales this pr stunt involved are overlooking the real and present dangers to their industry. let me illustrate what i think they should be focussed on instead. first total u-s meat consumption seems to have peaked and while there are lots of guesses why, this trend continues to baffle the industry. but the second more urgent problem for pork producers is shown here. not only is per person pork consumption seemingly stuck at 50 pounds per year, the poultry industry is blowing pork and beef especially out of the water. the amount of pork producers are fuming about in the prison system is less than one hundredth the width of the
line. as a result of these very real issues, pork producers should be obessed instead with freer trade. with domestic consumption permanently flat, unless we can sell overseas, it will be virtually impossible to grow production. finally, i salute senator grassley as well, for his remarkable bipartisan criminal reform bill success last week. oddly enough though, his efforts could end up reducing the federal prison population, making its pork consumption even more trivial. thanks, john. you can tell john if you agree or disagree by sending him an email. you can also reach him on facebook and twitter. when we come back, we're heading outdoors on teh farm with chip flory.
to you by yamaha, makers of the viking and the all-new viking six side-by-side vehicles. yamaha: real world tough> each fall chip flory from our "pro farmer" team takes us 'outdoors on the farm' to see how farmers are using their land beyond crop production. when deer season opened in illinois, chip was at sharkey outfitters in bradford, illinois. the sharkey family has been on the same farm since 1854. now, it's in the hands of rob and emily sharkey. the sharkeys, along with their four children, love the rural lifestyle. and as chip flory shows us the sharkeys remain true to farming, while delicating balancing the needs of hunters. with the steak sizzling in the cast iron, my son, tom and our host rob sharkey discuss strategy for the next day's hunt. > if you are here in the morning, you see him here in the morning, you go
sharkey works to give his current hunters the experience they want in the field and to provide future guests with a chance to stick a mature buck. to do so, herd management is key to his business plan. > and that it's probably one of the finest lines we walk, because we rent ground to hunt. farmers want the deer gone, because they do damage the crop. but we want to manage the herd, which brings in some minimum buck size, some killing of does. not killing the button buck. > now, we have got the plan in place for tom's hunt, it's time for serious business--dinner is up.> the key is mixing the beans and the potatoes.> with the sun just starting to turn black to gray light, tom is headed out to one of sharkey outfitters premier spots. the corn was just harvested at this spot, and the tree line creates the edge environment that deer love.> we are out in this corn field out here. we got out here about
6:15, there were deer out here feeding already. out here during the night and early morning, because there was a full moon last night and it's no good for deer hunters and they are out here all night every night. now rob, rents land from other farmers and he does host deer hunts on that rented ground, so it's a balance of protecting the crops ofofther farmers and still giving outdoorsmen a chance for success.> out here it's all about management, it's a buck facility if you would. that's what people come out here to do, they come out here to kill the big bucks, so you can't really kill the little bucks. so hopefully in about four or five years they are going to be as big as the bigger ones right now.> tom, i know we didn't drop one on the ground, but we saw a lot of deer out there. > oh, yeah there were a lot of deer. you have got a good program out there about managing deer, because there are a lot of young
bucks out there, so you know they are not killing them young and they are picking up the does from the button box, which that can be a problem on a lot of the farms.> well, i tell you what it has been a fun couple of days out here with you rob. we have covered managing the ground for farming and for wildlife. we have talked about a managing that deer herd, combining those two businesses--the outfitting business with the farming business. and of course, tom has had a blast in the blind. any time that he can get outdoors on the farm, you know that's where he is going to be. rob, thanks so much for having us out here. good luck with everything. bless you. that will get some of you in the mood for deer season. when we come back, al pell shows us a unique king in this week's tractor tales.
th wk features a unique king. this 1935 silver king may only be used for small jobs around this property, but it still shines as bright as the day it was built. its in the same condition it was in when i bought it. i bought it looking just like it does right now. at a sale north west of manhatten kansas. drove up there, always wanted a tractor older than me and this is the only one i could find that old. so i bought it. it hasn't given me a bit of trouble, it just runs and keeps goin, got a little hercules motor in it. fell in love with it before i ever got out of the
gathers dust most of the time, it goes to tractor show or two or three every year, and usually goes on the tractor ride. i do use it here on the lawn some as im pulling the airator and that type thing around the yard because its small and its not a real heavy tractor. weighs three thousand pounds, but that's fairly light for a tractor. this breather is an international. other than that its all original. this is all, i believe this is off a cub international. now ive had this tractor about 6 years and i have looked and looked for an original breather, they are almost non existent i guess because i cannot find one. ill probably hang on to this one. it probably does need a repaint. im probably gonna have to strip it down and repaint it. the guy, whoever painted it before got some bubbles in it but it looks pretty good from a distance, you know the old saying...at 90 miles an hour, 100 feet away looks nice, so. this week, we'd like to pay special tribute to the st.
about al the rain and the improvements we saw in the drought monitor in the south, including texas. well, dumas texas farmer thomas strohmeier says he was trying to get the crops out of the field before the storm. but the sky looks like a painting. thomas told usd harvest has been stop and go this year due to the rain. but their best field so far yieled
incredible. in missouri, it was a country sunrise last week. missy tells us corn harvest is pretty much wrapped up. farmers are still trying to get soybeans out of the field. we received some photos of the cranberry crop in cherryfield maine. katie yeatts works for cherryfield foods. they started harvest on october 12th and finished saturday with good yields. as you may know, cranberry growers flood the bogs for harvest. but before this years harvest, they had some sub-freezing temperatures that posed quite the challenge, so they sprayed on a layer of water to protect the berries from freezing. wallace willoughby posted this picture on our facebook page, which received quite the response from many of you. it hd over 112 shares and 51 comments. and here's why... wallace told us as he was in the field, eh heard a loud pop. he was in the combine, looking at the screens, trying to figure out what was wrong, when the guy driving the bugg started screaming for him
to get out. wallace says as he opened the door , flames were at the cab. so he jumped out just in time. they were just so dry and combine that with a spark, it destroyed his combine. so, he wanted to remind farmers to be careful and ke sure you have help in the field, because the guy helping him harvest saved his life. don't forget to send us your pictures and videos. and just remember to be safe out there. for all of us at u-s farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.
i'll tell you when that was, and how to move it out of the way, sunday night. --------------------- what could possibly bug a hawkeye fan about an 8-0 record? the baggage (robert) - to live artistically... what does this mean? is it painting or playing music? what about cooking, knitting, or architecture? maybe it's traveling or living one's life thoughtfully and compassionately, reaching for a higher state. creatives have been drawn to the northern new mexico towns